Robert McNeel & Associates are in decline

At the end of 2011, Jon Peddie Research (JPR) released its “2012 CAD Report,” which estimated the number of active CAD users worldwide to be 19.3 million… Of those 19.3 million global CAD seats, according to JPR, 27% are based in Asia; 34% in North America; and 37% in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) are growing most quickly. source: http://www.cadalyst.com/cad/cad-around-world-14725

Annual growth of global 3D CAD market is about 6%. source: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-3d-cad-market-growth-of-606-2015-2019---increased-switching-from-2d-to-3d-cad-by-end-users-568419511.html

Rhino3D also lost some ground, moving from 9% down to 5.3%. source: http://microfabricator.com/articles/view/id/54bf97e4313944610f8b4573/results-of-our-2015-cad-survey

Rhino3D is off a bit from 5.3% in 2015 to 3.9% this year. source:

My conclusion:
1. There was about 19.3*(1.06^3)0.09 = 2.1 million Rhino3D users in 2014. _
_2. Total number of Rhino3D users dropped to 19.3
(1.06^3)*0.053 = 1.22 million in 2015.

3. Total number of Rhino3D users dropped to 19.3*(1.06^4)*0.039 = 0.95 million in 2016.

Rhino3D users migrate to Fusion 360 because Rhino3D is based on NURBS and Fusion 360 is based on T-splines.

When Autodesk purchased T-splines in 2011, I claimed that other CAD vendors were doomed. I still believe that they are doomed.

By the way, I invented geometric modeling kernel (basic idea only, no patent yet) that is superior to T-splines. Alas, Robert McNeel & Associates do not have the resources to develop this basic idea into commercial program.

what’s your point?

NURBS stink. Most of the “advanced” Rhino tutorials explain how to struggle with fundamental flaws of NURBS.

Some increased negativity here recently. Booleans stink. NURBS stink.
Rhino3D and McNeel is in ruin… “Make CAD Software Great Again!” :wink:

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A bold conclusion considering the survey is based on a sample of 300 CNC orientated users out of 19.3m global CAD users… Now, if they had included me in the survey, the Rhino share would have jumped to 5.6% from 5.3%, the equivalent of another 60,000 Rhino users.

I make a decent living out of Nurbs and Booleans by the way, they work very well when used as tools as opposed to a magic wand.

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I think I’m going to “decline” to comment on this one… --M

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:smile: :smile: :smile:

Philip

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Kickstarter
HTH

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There is nothing better than a cup of coffee and McNeel forum in the morning :grin::joy:

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This post feels like a troll trap fishing for controversy but still I would like to point out that T-Splines still works within Rhino via the T-Splines plug-in. Do not think AutoDesk will discontinue the plug-in as they surely have other problems to worry about before shooting themselves in the foot by displeasing McNeels customers in addition to their own.

The numbers mentioned do not seem large enough to differentiate noise from trend.

Maybe it’s an idea to see if Autodesk is interested, at least they have virtually unlimited resources!

-Willem

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so McNeel should buy your invention to fix rhino and provide a better solution than nurbs?

whether or not there’s any truth to this, i’m pretty sure making public forum attack threads throws any chance of that happening out the window… wouldn’t you think?

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LOL, I don’t know how to put this in a non offensive manner, so I go the classic way:

No offence, but You are totally clueless.

McNeel CAD market share may or may not be in decline, I personally have no idea.
But the above quote tells me enough to not listen to your “expertise” on this matter.

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By the way: I am a Rhino as well as a Fusion360 user.

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Booleans don’t stink.
Relying on booleans makes the user impaired.
Its an addiction like Crack or Meth in that it gives the user the illusion of being more proficient when in the long run it is clearly not.

When new users are taught to model without using booleans they become much smarter and much more proficient. Learning to model using booleans has the opposite result of making one an impaired modeler who is limited to modeling just a tiny fraction of the things that can be made in Rhino.

So glad the p. word was not mentioned yet. I could not reply, my microphone is not working.

c.

Jon Peddie Research is a pay for play 'research ’ company. So all this shows is taht bob is not writing him checks.

If it was based on Jon’s findings by now we would all be doing all our work for 10 years now using GPU realtime photoreal direct-modeling+rendering. Starting next year we are all jumping into VR, because new clients!

whatever…

G

Please tell me what the ‘p’ word is…

Seems to me that polling 300 CNC based users hardly provides enough data to make any kind of claims as to the success or failure of any specific product. And I think it’s a huge leap to do some math from this small sample and state that there were 2.1 million Rhino users in 2014.

Dan

Think Trump.