yeah that’s a valid point. When I talk to our CG teams at work it’s been the same sentiment.
It reminds me of this well known study that produced a “hype chart” to help predict what things might end up looking like once the “hype” of something has died down and then moves into either full on rejection or adoption. It’s meant more as a vision planning/advanced design landscape tool, but has collateral implications with all the fields it touches. We are definitely at the peak of inflated expectations moment in history of AI. I think this study was done in 2024.
I feel confident (and resonated at Unreal Fest) that the senior positions and skills won’t go away any time soon. But I do wonder more about the entry-level “foundational building” skills new candidates will miss out on. Or is it that the designer of the future will be an AI prompt engineer as well? Not sure how that will play out. There’s a lot of complicated decision-making and consequential aspects to it.
But yeah, I suppose it depends on what part of the wave someone is willing to get on for the ride. Assuming someone want’s to ride the wave (valid points to not doing so).
Well, then I would say there is no designer at that point. Simply putting words based on examples of other peoples work which lets face it is where we get ideas is not really designing. Its more like throwing spaghetti at the wall and seeing what sticks.
It also takes away from the person developing as a designer. Imagine 10 years of “prompt specialist” . They are really only getting skilled at how to convey an idea properly to a text prompt so they get closer to what they think they want. At that point they arent learning design they are learning creative prompting. Can you imagine a work force that has no concept of design but are really good at telling AI to make a combination of these other things they like. Innovation dies for the sake of ease and speed.
yeah definitely a valid point. Personally i’m glad and proud of the years of learning modeling, the reward of design development in 3D and coming to the rendering outside of AI. Coming from that camp of thought.
I can’t imagine (for me) how bored I’d get, prompting things all day until I get the exact design I want on something. When I’m knee deep into a design. Like a captain that knows the plane can land on it’s own with autopilot, but chooses to take the controls because it’s what made the job fun and rewarding in the first place.
agreed. And “prompt engineer” is me using the industry PC term. “Text Artist” seems more like it. The kicker is a prompt engineer base salary starts at $136,000 a year.
$136,000 a year? That will drop as more people jump onto that band wagon. CG artists back in the mid 90s were making a fortune because there werent that many of them and they could charge a premium. Of course they brought actual skills to the table not just the ability to type. Now, many of them can barely make rent on what they earn.
yeah I mean your math has to add up (over saturation means that will drop real quick…like social influencer culture). Because I look at that salary now and I think to myself "I mean I’ve gotten pretty good at prompting (not for design purposes, for storyboarding and other things). And to be honest, it’s not that hard? So I don’t see where that 6 figure salary comes from in terms of that skill to hours ratio.
I even did an AI concept test project to where I told myself “ok, I’m going to create and curate a bunch of designs strictly in AI, pick some themes and see what I get”. And here are some of the outputs below. And at the end of it (this was a 30 minute session), I found out that:
my initial dopamine rush wore off almost instantly (unlike a model I’d spend days, weeks or months on in Rhino
While it’s busy and looks immediately “purposeful”, there’s equally a million things that I was like “ok, I mean I’d have my work cut out for me “unf**king” this design”.
Could it give me a starting point? Ok sure (especially because I can’t sketch like a Daniel Simon), but I think because it’s still pulling from a large data base of what it thinks that design is, I still have to go back in to do the work and make it something different…something “me”.
The idea my job is just sitting and typing prompts all day hoping I get the results I want sounds painful and soul sucking. Its bad enough I have to sit at a desk all day staring at a computer screen but at least Im doing something creative that requires skill. I dont have many years left doing this career so Im hoping I can survive whats left. I do feel bad for any up and coming designers who want to make their mark in the industry. The thing that concerns me with AI is we loose individuality as artists and designers. How can you create a unique style that is definitively you if AI is doing the defining. I see so many people posting AI work and calling it their art and they created it but is it really? Is it their art at that point? Did they put their style into it or simply call on others styles as reference. Daniel Simon went to school and learned automotive design. He learned standards in the industry just like many others like him . But he developed a style that is uniquely his. The same goes for Syd Mead , Ron Cobb and many others. I fear we loose the ability to stand out when we rely on a system that is built on the consumption of everyone’s data. When I see someones AI art I dont look at it and think "oh wow thats (insert name) art work. No I just say oh look another AI image.
I mean seriously. I laugh sometimes because I get back like this ADHD “get to the choppa now” ultro kitsmash version of a concept and 98 redlines later I’m like “ok maybe it was better just to rough something out in CAD”.
I mean that’s if someone is that strict about their design process. Now if someone is easily impressed and that first 4 prompt outputs does it for you…man then we are seriously screwed.
AI is really good and making something look great on the surface. And maybe thats the point. To start a conversation . But sadly thats not what happens. The conversation ends at " we like this one go make it" and now it falls back on people like us to as you say "un-f**ck the design. It actually makes more work than its saves because there is no design brief . There is a prompt. Can you put in all the engineering requirements along with that prompt? Can you bench test anything? Is anything it generates based on practical experience? Practical application? No. Its just responding to a basic set of instructions. And maybe thats all its needed for at the start. But I fear too many “higher ups” will misunderstand and already have to some extent that this is some sort of magic bullet that will solve all their labor problems and speed up productivity . So far the data shows just the opposite.
Whats funny is I go to places like Grab Cad and find models I think will give me a jump start for an idea. After about 20 minutes I realize I cant do anything with it and just start from scratch which is what I should have done to start with. It all comes from this urgency we have forced upon us to produce as quickly as possible. So we look for short cuts which always end up taking longer than if we just sat down and got to work.
Honestly I’d just say pour coffee on your screen at that point and throw chair dirt on it and maybe we still have a chance
Man you got me emotional on that one. I used to love the idea of grab cad. Now it’s just a place I go to in a pinch for adding dumb things I don’t wanna model like an LED light assembly or a foot pedal.
Yeah Grab Cad is great but for what Ive been working on the last 8 years its of no use. I have to ground up everything. And believe me its been a lot of work. I ran the numbers not long ago and realized that between 2 series and a movie Ive designed over 400 props. What I can say is I am 400 times more experienced of a designer than I was when I started . AI wont give you that experience.
I’d be curious if you ran like a “business level” math calculation on how much modeling hours to output you’d say you’ve gotten in the workflow. Basically something that says “I’m designing too much for what I’m getting paid.” But i know film companies have deep pockets, so maybe not even a thought.
I mean that’s if it’s even possible. I could never quote my work properly because I know each project has a unique challenge and deserves it’s own level of attention and problem solving.
Id say that we share similar situations. Its never cut and dry with the film industry. And they dont have the deep pockets at my level. Everything I do is very unique and requires certain parameters . There are certainly common threads through a lot of it. Style, practical application etc. but the design itself offers a challenge. Take anything you have done, now make it “alien” or make it levitate and chrome with a surface that changes shape. Or combine a truck with an airplane that acts like a speed boat. Thats the kind of silliness Im faced with .
This just washed up on our beach here on the Gulf of America from Cuba! Those guys trying to get to the states to take all the good prop builder jobs know what they are doing…
